Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.012177 0.013765 0.015483 0.017480 0.019739 0.022214 0.025135
2025-11-09 0.009398 0.011525 0.014019 0.017163 0.021022 0.025611 0.031489
2025-11-16 0.008062 0.010453 0.013418 0.017368 0.022500 0.028954 0.037704
2025-11-23 0.006985 0.009479 0.012714 0.017225 0.023363 0.031445 0.042928
2025-11-30 0.006358 0.008977 0.012510 0.017634 0.024894 0.034844 0.049572
2025-12-07 0.005554 0.008121 0.011709 0.017098 0.025013 0.036254 0.053510
2025-12-14 0.004970 0.007504 0.011159 0.016830 0.025437 0.038066 0.058110
2025-12-21 0.004421 0.006876 0.010522 0.016348 0.025464 0.039250 0.061816
2025-12-28 0.004207 0.006729 0.010580 0.016908 0.027099 0.042959 0.069692
2026-01-04 0.003964 0.006508 0.010497 0.017227 0.028363 0.046166 0.077015
2026-01-11 0.003765 0.006338 0.010472 0.017626 0.029771 0.049692 0.085132
2026-01-18 0.003490 0.006014 0.010167 0.017527 0.030330 0.051847 0.091093
2026-01-25 0.003253 0.005740 0.009930 0.017533 0.031088 0.054432 0.098093
2026-02-01 0.002984 0.005387 0.009528 0.017219 0.031259 0.056018 0.103467
2026-02-08 0.002826 0.005216 0.009427 0.017425 0.032366 0.059325 0.112230
2026-02-15 0.002630 0.004959 0.009150 0.017281 0.032810 0.061454 0.118958
2026-02-22 0.002531 0.004872 0.009171 0.017692 0.034319 0.065657 0.129986
2026-03-01 0.002314 0.004543 0.008716 0.017154 0.033959 0.066288 0.134066
2026-03-08 0.002151 0.004304 0.008414 0.016885 0.034097 0.067873 0.140158
2026-03-15 0.001978 0.004030 0.008021 0.016401 0.033760 0.068488 0.144305
2026-03-22 0.001935 0.004018 0.008141 0.016964 0.035596 0.073599 0.158242
2026-03-29 0.001869 0.003950 0.008144 0.017284 0.036949 0.077820 0.170634
2026-04-05 0.001815 0.003902 0.008185 0.017683 0.038501 0.082566 0.184560